MTL - Rebirth: Japanese investor-Chapter 16 ripple effect

   Chapter 16 The Ripple Effect

  Although the Asian financial turmoil is still going on, people's lives still have to go on. Someone in the ramen shop started talking about the current foreign exchange market.

  Kishimoto Masayoshi immersed himself in eating the tonkotsu ramen in his big bowl, but he knew in his heart that the foreign exchange market was dedicated to harvesting people like the other party.

  The timid layman who doesn't understand at all is fine. Just like what he said to Sakai Rie, the people who drown the most in the water are not those who can't swim, but those who can swim.

  The reason why he dared to short the yen with ten times leverage is because he knew in advance that the yen would fall until May or June next year, and the highest would approach the mark of 1 US dollar to 150 yen.

   Even so, Kishimoto Masayoshi has to watch carefully, so as not to let himself liquidate his position if the yen rises more than 10% against the dollar in the middle.

   In fact, if it exceeds 5%, a timely replenishment should be carried out. He will not carry out a full position operation, and will naturally reserve funds for a position replenishment as a backup.

   Under normal circumstances, it is also done with 2-5 times leverage. This is also for those veterans who have rich practical experience in foreign exchange speculation. When ordinary people step into the foreign exchange market, it is tantamount to courting death.

   Using leverage to speculate in foreign exchange is to think that you are not dying fast enough. If you want to make a fortune, you must take risks. The phrase "seeking wealth and wealth at risk" is absolutely true. However, the rate of return and risk are directly proportional.

   Masayoshi Kishimoto doesn't have to wait until the yen hits its lowest point against the dollar before closing his position. He knows very well that there will be ups and downs in the middle, and how to use and make money is a skill.

   The current exchange rate of the US dollar to the Japanese yen is 1:115. When the USD/JPY approaches 1:150, it means that the yen has fallen by about 30%.

  Kishimoto Masayoshi does not like to make money from the financial market, after all, it violates his investment principles. He is an investment company, not investing in stocks or speculation.

  In his opinion, the growth of a high-quality company is like making the cake bigger. The bigger the cake, the more divided it is. However, whether it is speculating in foreign exchange, speculating in stocks, speculating in futures, speculating in gold, etc., it is not like this at all.

  The cake size is often a given, if you eat more, I will eat less. I eat more, which means you have to eat less.

  The zero-sum game of the game between the two parties is either harvesting others or being harvested by others. If it is not too idle, I will not get involved in it.

   The most annoying thing in this world is the ripple effect. What happened from the financial crisis can spread to the real economy.

  Kishimoto's heart is like a mirror. At this time, mainland China is about to start a wave of layoffs that sweeps across the country. Laid-off workers are generally considered to be the pains of the country's industrial transformation, and the same is true in actual propaganda.

   In fact, the impact of the Asian financial turmoil, an external factor, was the fuse that set off this big wave of layoffs in mainland China.

The problem of laid-off workers first appeared in the early 1990s. At that time, it was not called laid-off. In some places, it was called "leave without pay", in some places, "unemployed in the factory", and some called "long vacation", "two no-shows", etc. .

  In the mid-to-late 1990s, the problem of laid-off workers became prominent as a social and economic phenomenon, and it attracted widespread attention from all walks of life.

The problem of    laid-off workers was concentrated in this period, which is a comprehensive reflection of the deep-seated contradictions accumulated over the years of China's economic development.

   From 1998 to 2000, a total of 21.37 million workers were laid off from state-owned enterprises in China. Among them, in 1998, there were 6.918 million people at the beginning of the year, an increase of 5.622 million people that year.

   In 1999, 6.1 million people were carried over from the previous year, and 6.186 million people were added that year; in 2000, 6.52 million people were carried over from the previous year, and 4.446 million people were added that year.

   In terms of the total amount, the total number of laid-off workers in the three years has shown a downward trend. From the perspective of geographical distribution, laid-off workers are mainly concentrated in old industrial bases and economically underdeveloped areas, and the three northeastern provinces account for 25%.

  In terms of industry distribution, it is mainly concentrated in difficult industries such as coal, textile, machinery, and military industry. At the beginning of 2001, the number of laid-off workers in state-owned enterprises (including state-owned joint ventures and wholly state-owned companies) was 6.573 million, an increase of 2.343 million and a decrease of 3.762 million.

   When Masayoshi Kishimoto thought of this, the bottle of five flavors in his heart was completely overturned. The Northeast is the hardest-hit area, and even 20 years later, the revitalization of the Northeast will only remain on the slogan. The birth rate in the Northeast is lower than that of Japan and South Korea, and more than 4 million young adults have left.

   The southeast coast was the least affected by this, after all, they were at the forefront of reform and opening up. In addition, the location advantage is obvious, facing Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, as well as overseas, so that the economy can be quickly built up.

   This is not a one-time end, just like the financial turmoil, it will come again after a while. Twenty years later, unemployment among young people aged 15-24 remains high even in some of the major OECD member countries.

South Korea is 11.2%, RB is 5.0%, Germany is 6.8%, Finland is 20.2%, Australia is 12.8%, Mexico is 7.1%, the United States is 9.4%, Canada is 11.7%, Denmark is 11.1%, France is 21.7%, Portugal was 23.7% and Spain was 39.3%.

   Kishimoto Masayoshi was full, paid the money, got up quietly and walked out of the ramen shop. His greatest emotion is that it is really not easy for people to live.

   Even the RB people with the lowest youth unemployment rate among the OECD member countries two decades later complained a lot, and they joked that they were social animals.

   Those who do not have a formal job have unstable income. After all, they are facing various pressures in life such as rent. Those who have formal jobs will face long hours of overtime again.

   On the surface, you work eight hours, but in fact, you will be required to work eight hours of overtime. A total of sixteen hours of work a day, and the so-called voluntary overtime, that is, no overtime pay.

  Such a situation is commonly seen in RB's small and medium-sized enterprises. In order to survive, they have no choice but to do it.

  The only good thing about big companies is that there will be more or less overtime pay for overtime. As for the duration, it will be more than ten hours a day. This high salary is not given for nothing, after all, entrepreneurs are not philanthropists.

  This retirement age was extended to 70 by the RB government, which really made Kishimoto understand what it means to be a corvée and die for a rest.

   For this reason, the reason why he crossed here is that he is not a salaryman. He deeply understood why the word "gong" didn't come out.

   The meaning of the word "poor" is that the top "宀" means a fixed place, such as a factory, unit, company, etc. The "eight" in the middle means an eight-hour workday. The bottom "force" means working hard.

   This together means, working 8 hours a day in a fixed unit, working hard! As a result, they are still poor.

   (end of this chapter)