I Became A Black Merchant In Another World-Chapter 188: Stocks and Capitalism (6)

Someone else’s misfortune is my happiness.

It’s the kind of thing only human trash would say, but it is also a truth that runs through the entire history of the world.

Take the Age of Exploration, for example. Spain and Portugal fought each other with their invincible fleets, causing chaos, and in the end, they destroyed themselves.

Then, the Netherlands quickly set up the East India Company, followed by England taking over.

That beautiful principle was at play.

“Sebastian, how are other guilds or nobles reacting to this situation?”

Sebastian chuckled when he heard my words and shrugged his shoulders.

“Some of the savvy merchant families have started slowly selling off land and buildings, predicting a drop in prices. However, the nobles and other merchants still haven’t changed their belief that land and buildings will always rise in value.”

Even in the Toscanian Empire, just 100 years ago, wars were fought almost like duels.

Ambushes were considered cowardly, so they would instead select knights to fight one-on-one in honorable duels before the war.

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If I told someone from that era about surprise attacks being allowed in modern warfare?

Would they be able to accept the change in common sense?

‘Of course, they wouldn’t believe it.’

But, like a dog barking at the rising sun, the decline in land prices is already an irreversible trend.

Someone might claim that I am the mastermind behind it all.

But I’ve only stirred people’s desires a little; I’m not controlling everything with my hands.

“Well, if they don’t know, they don’t know. Not knowing is also a crime.”

People in this world say ignorance isn’t a crime.

But in investment, business, and even love and marriage, ignorance is a crime.

If you invest in stocks and don’t know that the company’s CEO is embezzling, committing fraud, or betraying the company, you won’t face criminal charges directly.

But the penalty for ignorance is that the stock will turn into “waste paper.”

“I’ve instructed my information sources to stay close to those making large real estate transactions. What reports have they brought in?”

“As you predicted, real estate transactions have decreased significantly. The real estate brokers are sulking and sighing these days.”

The informants I’ve sent are not yet as capable as modern 21st-century intelligence agencies.

They can’t conduct covert operations to the extent of verifying North Korean defectors’ identities, checking if they know their aunt’s name, if they have a bad diet, or what they said in a speech contest.

They can’t openly steal ledgers or check transaction records.

But I can still get a rough idea of their reactions, emotions, and the direction of their actions.

With that small bit of information and the current situation, I can gather much more accurate intelligence than the information guilds (thieves) could ever gather.

Like this:

“They’re sighing because transactions have decreased. And because of that, the prices of real estate will inevitably drop.”

“I don’t fully understand. Why do you think so, Baron?”

People in the medieval era, who received proper education, were not ignorant compared to modern people.

However, when you present them with a concept that doesn’t exist in this era, they are completely lost.

Why do you think the United States stood by and got attacked during the Pearl Harbor bombing?

‘Because they were struck by a surprise attack that no one in that era could have imagined.’

Sebastian would also find it hard to grasp the new concept of a real estate market crash, something that doesn’t exist in this world. I’ll explain it to him in simple terms.

“Let me explain it simply. Imagine I’m so thirsty that I’m about to die and I buy a glass of water. But then the seller charges me 3 silver coins for one glass. What do you think I’d do?”

“Well, it’s better than dying of thirst. I’d have to put up with being overcharged.”

“Now, imagine I’m in urgent need of money and have to sell this longsword right away. But the buyer offers to buy it at half the market price. What would you do?”

“I’d grit my teeth and sell it.”

This example is so simple that even a 3-year-old child could understand it.

But when explaining how real estate prices can drop...

You have to resort to extreme cases of supply and demand, like this.

Why? Because the sudden crash in real estate prices is, at its core, a situation where demand plummets, and as a result, prices drop.

With this simple explanation, Sebastian began to articulate the next thing I wanted to say.

“Real estate is ultimately a commodity traded between people. Even though transactions have sharply declined, and some people are still holding onto their properties, insisting on keeping the original prices, if someone sells at a lower price, and the property is traded at that price...”

Sebastian’s face turned pale.

He opened his eyes so wide it seemed like they were going to pop out, and he covered his mouth with his hand.

He had never shown such a reaction in all the years I’ve known him.

“The price of real estate will drop. It will plummet endlessly.”

The principles behind stock prices and real estate prices are similar.

It’s whether the consumer thinks the stock is worth that much, or not.

If they think it’s not valuable, no one will buy at that price, and the price will crash.

“Before stock dividends are paid out, if capital and attention shift to stocks, I had them sell the real estate. To be blunt, I don’t care if other families or guilds lose out. But I cannot allow any losses to our Rothschild family’s assets.”

Among stock traders, there’s a joke:

If you had 100 investors in a domestic stock market, competing against a rock to see who made the most profit...

The winner would likely be the rock.

The reason is that the rock doesn’t lose any money because it didn’t invest.

In times of economic crisis, not losing money increases your social position by comparison.

Like the rock winning the investment competition.

When everyone else is going bankrupt, I’m the only one left standing.

Well, the Visconti Duchy and the royal family were lucky to avoid the worst of it.

‘Honestly, though, they’ll suffer some minor blows.’

“Now that we’ve secured cash, we just have to wait.”

Stocks, like any business, are always in a quantum state of fluctuation—they could rise or fall as long as the company doesn’t go bankrupt.

It’s like the cat in the box, where you don’t know whether it’s alive or dead until you open the box.

However, that’s just theoretical.

Even though the price of apartments in Seoul may drop, they will eventually return to their original value. But country homes, once their prices drop, will never recover.

“Look at the land and buildings owned by others. And buy the prime properties near Florence or other big cities.”

“Baron, you truly have deep insight.”

In Korea, anyone with a little knowledge of stock investment would think the same thing.

But for people who’ve only recently learned about stocks, it’s a completely foreign concept.

“Keep the cash you’ve accumulated as it is. And large trading ships will definitely come up for sale at a steep discount. Let’s buy them when that happens.”

Demand for large ships will increase, so it’s better to buy at a low price.

“Understood.”

Now I’ve done everything I need to in preparation for the real estate crash.

“Since it will happen in a few months, make sure the employees take their vacations early. There’s nothing worse than not having money when you’re on vacation. Give them enough vacation allowances.”

Months after Fabio made his predictions, in a real estate office in Florence.

“Why is it that a 150-pyeong mansion in a prime location in Florence isn’t selling even for 200 gold coins? Does the owner even want to do business?”

Normally, the owner would answer:

“If you wait just a little longer, a buyer will come.”

But today, the owner couldn’t make any excuses.

“If you lower the price by just 20 gold coins, it will be half-price! Half-price!”

He had already reduced the price by 45%, but talking about waiting or lowering the price further was completely irrational.

“Damn it, I wanted to sell this house and buy stocks. What’s going on?”

Some brave souls had invested in the risky stocks, and with their first dividends, they doubled their investments and were receiving 15-20% in regular dividends.

Others who invested elsewhere were also making substantial profits and getting richer.

Money was multiplying, so this nobleman, who had wanted to sell his useless mansion and dream of becoming a stock magnate...

‘Why can’t the mansion sell?’

“I don’t know either.”

“Does that make sense?”

“I’m sorry.”

The nobleman, frustrated after a 30-minute lecture to the real estate agent, finally gave up with a deep sigh.

“Sigh, I have to sell it. Let’s list it for 180 gold coins.”

“Yes, of course.”

“If it doesn’t sell this time, I’ll go out and sell it myself.”

With those words, the nobleman slammed the door and stormed out.

Luckily for him, the mansion was sold for 180 gold coins to a merchant.

But that was only the beginning of a much bigger problem.