God's Imitator-Chapter 472: An Inconsequential Match

Lin Sizhi paused slightly and continued:

"This is because, as the 'Thief,' he had to judge whether the 'Sage' '↓The Emperor,' when constructing the number chain, had constructed it randomly or had adopted the 'Evil Warden Strategy,' deliberately setting a trap targeting the 'chain loop strategy.'

"And '↑The Devil's' initial judgment was that '↓The Emperor' had definitely set a trap.

"Because '↓The Emperor' was the designer of this game. He of course knew these details and variations, which is why he set up such rules. He was a true 'Evil Warden.'

"That is to say, he had very likely already made the 22 wooden boxes into several loops greater than 7 times.

"If '↑The Devil' executed the 'chain loop' strategy, it would be a guaranteed loss.

"So he chose 'chain jumping': actively jumping out of the 'chain loop.'

"Which is choosing the number 15 but deliberately not opening wooden box number 15. Instead, opening other wooden boxes and starting to execute the 'chain loop strategy' from the next time.

"This is equivalent to eliminating one confirmed wrong answer and can increase his success rate.

"But unfortunately, his strategy failed.

"Because he overthought it by one step: '↓The Emperor' deliberately adopted the 'hiding in plain sight' strategy and arranged several chains with fewer than 7 numbers.

"Executing the 'chain loop' was actually the optimal solution. Deliberately jumping one step instead greatly reduced his success rate.

"Of course, '↓The Emperor' also employed some auxiliary strategies:

"Before the game started, he said: As the 'Sage,' I can give you a kind reminder. In this game, there are subtle connections between the tarot cards and numbers. Fate has already been decided in the unseen realm. Conform to these connections, and fate will give you the rewards you deserve.

"This was actually hinting at the 'chain loop' strategy, but the more he hinted, the more '↑The Devil' would doubt him and the less he would adopt it.

"So, in the first attempt, '↑The Devil' failed without suspense.

"But soon, '↑The Devil' figured this out. He quickly understood the other party's true strategy and smoothly found the number given by the 'Sage' in the second attempt.

"So this result was acceptable to both parties.

"'↓The Emperor' won and gained enough Wealth Vouchers.

"Although '↑The Devil' only took Wealth Vouchers from 7 wooden boxes, he thoroughly figured out the gameplay of this set of rules and had more strategic freedom afterward.

"So, what I adopted was actually just a variant of the 'chain jumping' strategy."

Lin Sizhi paused slightly and continued explaining, "My first speculation was: you wouldn't truly adopt a random strategy.

"If battling other players, that would be another matter.

"But since you have an obsession with beating me, you couldn't possibly entrust everything to luck.

"You would, based on thinking about rule variations, arrange a strategy you consider 'perfect' and 'with the greatest chance of winning.'

"First, you wouldn't randomly create, or deliberately create, a number chain with fewer than 7 numbers, because you can't rule out the possibility that I would use the 'chain loop' strategy. A chain with fewer than 7 numbers is a guaranteed loss.

"Second, you most likely also wouldn't create a chain with more than 11 numbers.

"Because there are only 22 wooden boxes total. If creating chains of 11 numbers, you can make two. But if there appeared a chain exceeding 11 numbers, like 13 numbers, that would mean the other chain only has 9 numbers, which would increase the risk of being guessed.

"Moreover, I can remember the numbers in the 7 wooden boxes opened in the first action. The fewer numbers in the chain, the higher the risk.

"If creating a chain of 22 numbers, stringing together all the wooden boxes' numbers, this is a specific extreme situation that would make people feel it lacks variation and instinctively reject it.

"Two chains of 11 numbers would appear more balanced and safer.

"So, I guessed you most likely created two chains of 11 numbers.

"Such a chain has 11 numbers. Among them, 7 numbers are the 'danger zone.' Within this area, they would ultimately be found through 'chain loop.' The remaining 4 numbers are relatively safe.

"As for what these specific numbers are, this depends on which specific number I choose, which is the 'chain head number.'

"You can't guess what I'll choose, but you'll most likely instinctively actively avoid some special numbers.

"For example, number 10 'Wheel of Fortune,' number 6 'The Lovers,' or numbers like 17 or 4.

"That is to say, you definitely won't arrange the wooden box 'containing 10 vouchers of 100 denomination' in the 7 positions adjacent to wooden box number 10 on this chain.

"But this also created the most fatal flaw:

"After eliminating other strategies layer by layer, you actually severely compressed the space for number selection, making this problem increasingly distant from 'randomness' and increasingly close to 'certainty.'

"And this causes the returns of the 'chain jumping strategy' to greatly increase.

"After I choose a number, I have 7 chances to open wooden boxes in the first action.

"If you arranged it completely according to a random strategy, whether I jump chains wouldn't change the probability. My chances of winning actually aren't great and depend more on luck.

"However, you specifically created two number chains, which caused the returns of 'chain jumping' to greatly increase.

"Because every time I open a wooden box, I can confirm and eliminate two wrong answers, which is the box's own number and the number corresponding to the quantity of 100 denomination Wealth Vouchers in the box.

"The more I eliminate like this, the higher the probability of finding the correct number subsequently.

"So the final conclusion is... when battling you, 'chain jumping' at every step is the solution with the greatest chance of winning in this match."

Lin Sizhi continued, "Of course, besides these, I also considered other factors.

"For example, I asked you, if I ultimately won, would you think it was skill or luck?

"This of course wasn't asking whether you accept defeat, but was double-checking my previous speculation: to what degree had you deliberately arranged the numbers in the wooden boxes?

"If you still answered 'luck,' it would indicate you most likely didn't make arrangements you considered to have the greatest chance of winning, so even if I won, there would be an element of luck.

"But if you answered 'skill,' this would indicate you most likely made arrangements in the wooden boxes that you considered to have the greatest chance of winning, because only this way would you believe that my guessing the numbers maximally eliminated the element of luck and was purely strategy winning.

"Which also means the wooden boxes were in a relatively special situation."

Han Mengying was silent for a moment and asked, "Before the game officially started, you deliberately mentioned the match between '↓The Emperor' and '↑The Devil.' Was that also for a special purpose?"

Lin Sizhi nodded. "I suppose so.

"Actually, I previously judged that you most likely knew about these variations and details, but I still needed to double-check.

"I wanted to observe your reaction through this topic and further determine which level you had thought to.

"But unfortunately, I didn't gain much.

"Your defense was done very well, and I'm not someone skilled at reading body language, so I actually didn't analyze anything."

Han Mengying took a deep breath and said, "I have to admit that, judging from the results, you did indeed anticipate my thinking.

"I acknowledge this is absolute skill.

"However, such complex analysis, as long as any one link was wrong, could lead to completely different results.

"What if a low-probability event occurred?"

The match time was up. Lin Sizhi stood up.

"Perhaps you still have some misunderstanding about me. Regarding winning, I actually don't have any particular obsession.

"To me, this was just an insignificant match. Even if I lost, it wouldn't matter at all."