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After the Divorce, I Could Hear the Voice of the Future-Chapter 72: Yen Depreciation
Tang Caide left, and Lu Liang also opened his computer to browse through today's financial news from around the world.
He only glanced at the domestic stock market, for it was yet another straight line to the floor, with retail investors being sheared to the point of despair.
Just a while ago, they were cursing Old Xiao for maliciously warning them, and now they were hoping that Old Xiao would descend like a divine soldier to rescue them from misery.
Zhongxin Fuying and No. 12 Futian Road were too damn ruthless, delivering a floor price day after day with over ten billion in sales, and they still weren't finished.
The stock price dropped from 48.25 yuan to 35.19 yuan, hitting three stop-loss limits in a row, with a net loss of 1306 yuan per lot.
The small profits that retail investors had previously made were not enough to even cover their original investment, let alone the profit, and they had been severely gouged.
It was a continuous gouging,
they saw it with their own eyes and felt the pain in their hearts. The key issue was that with the dealers delivering at floor prices, they couldn't even cut their losses if they wanted to.
"Just hold on a little longer, at most another two days."
Lu Liang was also losing millions every day, but he had earned some profit beforehand and had a bottom line in his heart, so he was not the least bit flustered.
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Soon, he was drawn to the news from Japan; after all, he had passed the English Level-4 exam. Though reading a full English article exerted some pressure, he no longer had to translate every paragraph as he did before.
Breaking news just came out, Japan suddenly convened a cabinet meeting with intentions to raise the consumption tax.
"With an aging society, declining birthrate becoming increasingly severe, and the national treasury empty, raising the consumption tax is inevitably the right choice."
Lu Liang pondered for a long time and pulled up the frequency and extent of increases in Japan's consumption tax over the past twenty years.
Initially, they were too aggressive, boasting about selling off Tokyo to buy the United States, but then they got severely hit by the Americans.
After two decades of economic stagnation, the only thing that didn't rise was the wage. Whether it was prices or consumption tax, they only increased, never decreased.
The last time the consumption tax was raised from 3% to 5%, it was in '97 when the Thai baht was short-sold, triggering a collapse of the baht and leading to the financial crisis that swept through all of Asia.
"Will the consumption tax, which hasn't increased in eighteen years, rise?"
Lu Liang fell into deep thought; if it increased, it would certainly be a bearish signal for the yen, presenting an opportunity to short.
If it didn't increase, that would be a bullish signal for the yen, and shorting would mean going against the entire market.
After much contemplation, Lu Liang pulled up the exchange rate between the yen and the US dollar for the past several years and suddenly laughed.
A natural disaster four years ago, followed by a man-made mishap, directly opened the downward channel for the yen.
At that time, one US dollar could exchange for 79 yen.
Now, one US dollar could get you 108 yen.
For a country's currency,
a rise of 37.5% in four years was nothing short of a bloodbath.
Take someone with a monthly salary of three thousand.
Four years ago, a bottle of Coke cost 3 yuan,
now a bottle is 4.12 yuan.
Four years ago, that person could buy 1000 bottles, but today, four years later, they can only afford 728 bottles.
The cost to produce Coke actually remained unchanged; the 272 bottles that vanished into thin air were the manifestation of currency devaluation and inflation.
Lu Liang pondered for a long time, then decided to take his shot.
The devaluation of the yen was an irreversible trend. Natural and man-made disasters were just triggers; the real issue was due to the shrinking birthrate and aging population.
Children are the foundation of all economies. From the discovery of an embryo to graduation from university, at least 20 years pass with only expenses and no income. The industries they stimulate during this time are countless.
But it's different for the elderly, who have cars and houses, health insurance, and pensions. With old age comes limited consumption, to the point that not even the bubble bath industry sees a boost.
Even if the consumption tax does not increase, shorting would at most lead to a loss and not necessarily blow up one's position.
Lu Liang still held 145 million, and to leave such a large sum of money lying idle in the account was nothing short of despicable waste.
He planned to take out 10 million US Dollars for a bit of fun, and if he lost it, he could still break even with the earnings from Teli A.
Lu Liang began to gather information, his primary focus was on the rules of forex trading, followed by the timing of the Japanese Cabinet's next regular meeting.
The rules of forex trading were not much different from those of stock or gold trading, it all came down to selling high and buying low.
With the current rate of 1 US Dollar to 108 yen, without using leverage, 10 million US Dollars would exchange for 1.08 billion yen.
In the US Dollar to yen forex market, for every point it rose, there would be a profit of 10 million yen, which equaled approximately 92,500 US Dollars.
If leveraging was used, a 10 times leverage would turn a one point gain into a profit of 100 million yen, and with 100 times leverage, that would be 1 billion yen.
Correspondingly, with 100 times leverage, a one point drop would mean a loss of 1 billion yen, and if the loss exceeded 70% of the margin, it would trigger a forced liquidation.
The cost of using leverage also varied greatly, ranging from 50 to 400 times, and the transaction fee for each trade was between 0.06% and 0.1%.
The next Cabinet meeting was set for the following Tuesday.
They would listen extensively to public opinion before deciding whether or not to raise the consumption tax, and by how much.
Lu Liang pondered over these two matters for half a day.
So much so that he skipped lunch, until Tang Caide called him to view the company's new venue.
Lu Liang took Chen Jinchun with him to the Lujiazui financial district, visiting famous buildings such as the Global Financial Trade New International Building.
The cheapest they found was 8 Yuan per square meter, with others at 9 Yuan, 11 Yuan, and even as high as 15 Yuan.
Lu Liang took a liking to the New International Building near Greentown, situated in the very core of Lujiazui, a 3-minute walk from the subway station.
The tower stood 45 stories high, with the office space available for rent on the 32nd floor, offering a usable area of 3,800 square meters at a daily rent of 9.5 Yuan per square meter.
Despite being high up, there were many elevators, a total of 38 high-speed elevators from Germany, ensuring hassle-free commutes.
"Let's go with this one," said Lu Liang, eating a burger Chen Jinchun had just bought for him, quite satisfied after taking a tour.
With a prime river view, the Bund in sight, the Mingzhu Tower as its backdrop, and nearby giants like the Bank of China, Ping An, and HSBC, business dealings in the future would also be convenient.
The property manager's face lit up with joy upon hearing this, smiling ear to ear, "Mr. Lu, after the discount, the monthly rent will be 1.05 million."
"Mr. Tang, I'll leave this place to you, I have other things to attend to, so I'll be going now."
Lu Liang didn't respond with a smile but glanced at the time; he had promised to pick up Su Wanyu that afternoon to come for English lessons and signaled Tang Caide that the price could still be haggled down.
There was a lot of room for negotiation with high-end office spaces, especially when renting such a large office area, getting a discount of 70 to 80% wouldn't be unusual.
With an annual rent of over 10 million, companies that could afford it often built their own buildings. Those that couldn't afford it wouldn't need such a large office space, which made it rather awkward.
The original rent was 1.083 million, but in Lu Liang's opinion, the final deal could be negotiated down to around 900,000. After all, the property management fees were charged separately, 28 Yuan per square meter per month, also amounting to over a million a year.
Tang Caide understood and asked, "Xiao Chen, do you want to go with you?"
"You can keep her," he replied.
Lu Liang discarded the burger wrapper, sipping his cola as he strolled leisurely to the underground parking lot of the building.
His casual attire stood out distinctly against the business suits of the passing businessmen.
As soon as he got into his car, Lu Liang called Su Wanyu, "Are you still at home?"
"Um... yes."
"I'll be there in thirty minutes."
Half an hour later, at Hongfa Apartment in Guangzhong Fifth Village, Su Wanyu stood at the door with a walking stick.
Lu Liang pulled up beside her, teasing with a smile, "Do I really have to get out and help you open the car door?"
He noticed that ever since their relationship was no longer strictly employer-employee, Su Wanyu often seemed slow in responding to him, displaying an inherently ditsy nature.
Su Wanyu hopped over to the passenger seat, stored her walking stick, and then suddenly whispered, "I'd like to ask for a few days off."