MTL - Survivorship Bias-Chapter 3 keep a low profile

No one dies unexpectedly.

An Wujiu's purpose at this moment is the same as everyone present, to become a survivor in the game. In this warm-up match, he needs to do two things.

1. You cannot win.

2. Calmly prompt Yang Ming to win.

Losing is actually very simple, choose 1 or 100, you will definitely lose, but it is too dazzling, and it is self-giving at first sight. The difficulty of this game is that the loss is not obvious. It is necessary to make Yang Ming and others believe that they are not "as strong" as the legend through the results. In this way, other people's fear and defense of him can be alleviated.

The thin rain falls on the round table, wrapped in the smell of chemical raw materials and soil, which is terrifyingly real.

Time is running out.

Play this game with positive thinking, the original purpose is to predict the results of others through analysis, so that the number you choose is closer to the average value of the number selected by everyone.

And the other way around?

He wants Yang Ming to be the person closest to 1/2 of the mean, so he needs to predict other people's numbers and the numbers Yang Ming may choose, and finally decide which number he wants to write.

To achieve the desired result, An Wu Jiao needs to guess the range of numbers for each candidate as possible.

The option is between 1 and 100. Assuming that there are enough rational people in the game, enough to ignore personal preferences, the guessed numbers will be evenly between 1 and 100. distribution, the average value is around 50. After taking 1/2, the selectable numbers are further reduced, from [1,100] to [1,50]. If you choose more than 50, it is impossible to become half of the average. According to the probability or median, the number that everyone will generally guess is half the mean of 50, which is 25.

Choose numbers above 25, and the odds of winning will be greatly reduced.

But this is only the first layer of logic.

If everyone is aware of this, and follows this logic, the selected number will generally fall below 25, so that the final 1/2 of the mean will shift down again, becoming into 12.5 or so. And so on, the next layer is 6.25...

Players on the first tier will guess 1/2 of their average.

The player on the second tier guesses what he thinks is 1/2 of the average in the minds of others.

Even 1/2 of what they think, others think others think…

As the player's logic level deepens, the final guess will become smaller and smaller until the number 1, because no player will think that others will choose a smaller number than himself. This equilibrium state is the Nash equilibrium.

So the most difficult part of this game is not to guess the average, but to guess which level of thinking mode of the eight contestants currently on the field.

Therefore, after learning the rules of the game, An Wujiu devoted all his energy to observation, which was the only way he could obtain information from strangers in a short period of time. A person's thinking mode is largely formed by the day after tomorrow, depending on life experience and education, and the thinking mode will in turn affect his dress and behavior.

Liu Chengwei has never been to school, and has not received basic education, so there is a high probability that he will not know game theory.

An Wujiu glanced at Liu Chengwei and found that he did not write the answer decisively, but scratched his head and thought hard for a while.

But when you get this kind of question, you can always think of the number close to the middle. For Liu Chengwei's level, the probability that the mean value is 50 is the greatest.

When looking at the others, An Wujiu suddenly realized that when he woke up, the panel displayed the fifth level, I don’t know if other players are the same, but at least one thing is okay—no People are newbies. Because no one was overly flustered, unfamiliar with the rules, and no one broke down when they saw the offenders being shot.

These survivors went through previous rounds and survived, and this round is not a novice round. According to the difficulty of this warm-up game, there are probably similar projects before.

The survivors who have survived to this day are not fools.

The youngest Wu You...An Wujiu finds it very strange that such a young child can enter such a life-and-death game, just by looking at his clothes, he really doesn't seem to be able to afford the cost of education However, when mentioning the patterns on An Wujiu's neck, Wu You immediately mentioned the types of flowers, at least it showed that his family was not ordinary.

A layer with an average value of 25 can definitely be imagined, but if he really chooses 25, he may also worry that someone will choose a smaller number and lower the average value.

His answer is probably closer to 12.5.

Ueno and Lao Yu seem to belong to the same kind of people, cautious, afraid of fouls, and overthinking. Ueno wears glasses and has thin calluses on his finger pads after using the keyboard. It is probably a trace of long-term use of the keyboard, so he should be educated, even higher education. They should stand at a higher logical level than Liu Chengwei and Wu You, so it is about 6.25, and they can only choose a natural number, so that is 6.

An Wujiu was lost in thought. It is not easy to think about 6 or so, and there will be risks if you continue to go down, because everyone's thinking depth is different. Even if you can think of deeper logic, you will worry that others will not think of it, so you give up choosing a smaller number.

What about Zhong Yirou?

She is smart. This is An Wujiu's impression of her. She is skilled in interpersonal relationships and good at observation. Before other people understand the key to this game, she has already guessed Yang Ming's occupation. This intelligence gathering ability is definitely not ordinary people.

In addition, the distribution of her finger calluses is not like using a computer, plus the small scars, it is more like using a fine knife.

An Wujiu looked at the tool bag on her body again, the artificial leather on her calf and the modified palm.

It should be related to prosthetic transformation or precision machinery.

But precisely because she is smart enough, the analysis of the previous people should be the same as herself. For her, Yang Ming and herself need to be on guard.

According to the information about An Wujiu given by Yang Ming, the useful information is nothing more than scheming, insidious and cunning, such an image will lead Zhong Yirou to believe that [An Wujiu will do something very unexpected options, such as very low numbers. ]

For her, the final result may be around 6. Once someone chooses a very small number, it may be just in her position in the end. .

Everyone's thoughts can only be speculated at the moment, An Wujiu is very clear, he is just guessing, the final result may be neither one.

However, there are good guesses and hard guesses. The most difficult thing for him was Shen Ti.

This guy is the only one on the field who has no flaws.

With a mask on her face, she can't see her appearance, her dress is not unique, and she has not even made a single statement so far. An Wu Jiu raised his head in thinking and looked in the opposite direction. But he found that the other party was looking at him.

The two looked at each other again, An Wujiu squinted.

The other party is also watching him.

For everyone on the field, An Wujiao, who is described as a lunatic, is undoubtedly a dangerous time bomb, and I am afraid Shen Ti is also very curious.

In the eyes of two people, each other is the biggest uncertainty factor and the fault tolerance point of the other party. It's just that one person has no flaws, and one person is completely exposed.

Not true. An Wu Jiu looked down at the paper.

No flaw is the biggest flaw.

Shen Ti chose not to expose at all, which shows that he understands the fundamentals of the game. Then the choices of the previous few people can also be predicted for him, there are at least two people who will choose a number higher than 6, so if Shen Ti wants to win, he will not choose a number that is too low.

But which number is between 6 and 12.5, I can only bet.

At present, there is a number that may appear around 25, a number that may appear around 12.5, and three numbers that may appear around 6, not counting Shen Ti, Yang Ming, and yourself, the average Counting down to about 11, then 1/2 of the average will appear on 5 or 6.

It stands to reason that if the remaining three people are good at deep thinking, the number they will choose should be low, even to the third level. But it is precisely because of this that they understand the rules of how this game works, and what they will really do is not to guess deeper, but to get closer to the answers of others.

Shen Ti's full armor made An Wujiu feel something, and his intuition made him think that the other party would choose a lower number.

Since he can feel it, Yang Ming can also.

The final number will not be higher than 6.

What will Yang Ming choose?

No, how would Yang Ming guess about himself?

An Wujiu looked at Yang Ming, the other party stared at the display screen, did not raise his head, frowned, seemed to be lost in thought.

"It's time to calculate. Now the results of the first round of the 'The Golden Mean' will be announced."

The handwriting screen in front of each of them casts new projections in the air in turn.

"Wu You: 13, Yu Guang: 6, Zhong Yirou: 6, Ueno Dacheng: 7, Liu Chengwei: 25.

Yang Ming: 5, Shen Ti: 6, An Wujiu: 8. "

"1/2 of the final average was 4.75, and the closest was Yang Ming's result. Yang Ming won."

Seeing the expected smugness and rare relaxation on Yang Ming's face, An Wujiu's heart sank.

His prediction was right.

Yang Ming's level is the same as he imagined, and he can estimate the range of the average on the field, but for him, the estimate is useless, because there is a person he is afraid of.

After the previous conversation, An Wujiu already knew how dangerous he was in Yang Ming's mind, he was very scheming and good at disguising, he didn't play cards according to common sense, and looked down on anyone else.

So playing steadily did not meet his expectations.

Bai Qie Hei was given to him by Yang Ming An, An Wu Jiu had no choice but to use it.

He calculated Yang Ming's calculation for him, and finally wrote a result on the paper that should meet the other party's expectations. 8, a number that at first glance underestimates the level of others.

Although this can't be regarded as an upright tactic, An Wu Jiu has no other way, he just wants to protect himself.

Looks like it was intentional.

"You really deserve to be Brother Yang." Zhong Yirou changed her mouth, brushed the hair hanging from her shoulders, and smiled sweetly, "It's amazing."

.

"Hey, I thought some people were so powerful." Liu Chengwei sneered, "It's no different from people like us, didn't they even lose the warm-up game in the end."

This is what An Wu Jiao expected. When Liu Chengwei said it, he even felt a sense of relief that his goal had been achieved.

The dramatic thing is that Yang Ming who speaks for An Wujiu is actually a thorn in his side.

"It's just an occasional stumble." He raised his eyebrows, "After all, I haven't done it for nothing."

An Wu Jiu sat quietly, staring at his fingers that were still trembling slightly.

Because of the victory, a gift box popped up in front of Yang Ming, and it fell to him with blue light.

"Congratulations. Before declaring your advantage this round, initialize the game for everyone."

As soon as the voice fell, all the people on the round table floated up, dizzy, like an illusion caused by ingesting an overdose of hallucinogens, the world wrapped in light pollution and air dust began to spin and collapse, and eventually became a Small dot, a white particle.

Then, like an explosion, the particles expand into a whole new world at an uncapable speed.

Sacred Voice began to introduce the world view of the new round of the game: "This round of the game is called the red and black carnage. The terrorists carried out a poison gas attack on Miami. The density of this poison gas is lower than the air, and the death and injury above the surface are It's so bad, at the moment of life and death, the eight of you came to the safe bunker under the office building by accident through the air defense passage."

"Here is a miniature nuclear bunker secretly excavated and developed by the founder of Camiki Corporation. It is 18 meters deep underground. It is safe but closed, and the exit is destroyed. It can only be blasted from the outside. The survival resources here are very Limited, only enough for the eight of you to support four nights and five days."

The dust-like particles gradually gather into fragments, and the fragments approach and join together.

"In the bunker, a yellow energy bar will be displayed on the top of each of you. It is full at the time of initialization, but with the lack of materials, hunger, thirst and other problems , the energy value will continue to decrease, and it will be regarded as a death and out after returning to zero."

"The current system time is 9:00 am. At 9:00 am on the fifth day, a rescue team will rescue everyone, of course, everyone who is alive."

As long as it reaches 9 points, it means that the survival is successful.

"Does the rescue team need to dig for five days with just a few people?" It was Zhong Yirou's voice, "Rescue or archaeology?"

The eyes are too dazzling, An Wu Jiu's damaged vision makes it difficult for him to adapt, and it takes nearly ten seconds for his vision to become clear.

He heard Ueno's voice.

"On the fifth day to save us, is the material enough..."

A moment later, the modeled world finally appeared before their eyes.

An Wujiu stared at the closed door in front of him, and the "Passion of Jesus" drawn on it①.

It can't be that simple.

--------------------

The author has something to say:

①The painting of the painter Raphael, depicting the scene of **** being crucified on the cross.

Volume 2 Red and Black Carnage