Holy Roman Empire-Chapter 918 - 181: The Unreliable British Nanny

"The French are in a rush!"

Upon receiving the message released by the French, Gladstone concluded this.

It’s true that Britannia is at a disadvantage in the Afghan War, but not to an extent that could make the British Government panic.

Even if the entire Afghan region fell, as long as the main force of the British Army at the front hadn’t been completely wiped out, the Great Britain Empire would still have the confidence to win the war.

There was no other reason; having money meant having a strong backbone. The centennial accumulation of the Great Britain Empire was no joke. When it came to fundamental strength, the Russians simply didn’t measure up.

Foreign Minister George analyzed, "Considering how the war in Europe has progressed up till now, the French dream of a quick victory has been shattered.

The subsequent war will depend on the comprehensive national power. Although Frances’s Army is strong, in other areas, their disadvantages are too obvious.

From the current situation, if the French can’t cross the Rhine River shortly and bring the flames of war to the German hinterland, they will lose their strategic advantage.

What awaits them then is an endless counterattack by Austria. It can be said that the longer the war drags on, the lower the chances are for the French to win the war.

According to the current intensity of the war, in at most another two or three years, the French will be unable to continue."

Clearly, George did not look favorably on the French. The gap in comprehensive strength between the two sides was too significant, and France was at too great a disadvantage in a war of attrition.

However, the renown of the French Army was too great, and no one could guarantee that they wouldn’t make a key turnaround when the odds were against them.

After all, similar cases had occurred many times in the history of conflicts between France and the Habsburg dynasty.

After presenting a document, Finance Minister Disraeli Childs smiled and said, "Two to three years, Your Excellency may be overestimating the French strength.

In my view, without external intervention, it’s uncertain whether the French can even hold out until 1891.

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Putting aside the military issues, let us first calculate an economic account and reassess the French strength.

These are the data collected by the Finance Department. For the last three months, our total trade volume with the French has increased by 5.1 times compared to the same period of the previous year.

Our export trade volume to France has increased by 6.5 times, while the total import trade volume has shrunk by 64.7 percent, resulting in a trade surplus of 64.86 million British Pounds.

This is only the trade with us, and if we include France’s trade with other countries, their trade deficit in the last quarter of 1890 won’t be less than 120 million Pounds.

If this war does not end, the French trade deficit will continue to grow.

Especially since French African is about to fall, once they lose this raw material production area, the French will need to import even more materials.

In the past, the proud French sought to dominate currency hegemony and have always promoted the Franc internationally, holding only a small amount of Divine Shield and pound sterling.

At the current rate of depletion, it won’t be long before the French foreign exchange reserves are exhausted. At that time, they can only trade with Gold, and their meager Gold reserves can’t support them for long.

This is still an ideal scenario; the real situation will probably be even more severe. The French government has been adopting a fiscal deficit policy since Napoleon III, and they have long since been heavily indebted.

Having launched this war hastily under-prepared, I lack confidence in the Paris Government’s finances."

Is France wealthy?

Without a doubt, as the third-largest economic power in the world, France can definitely be considered wealthy.

However, France being wealthy does not mean the French government is wealthy. If the frontlines are progressing well, the French finance group would naturally provide strong support, but otherwise, it would be a different story.

Capital knows no borders, and this is no joke. If a situation becomes untenable, capitalists definitely won’t go down with the government.

Wars are fought with manpower, material resources, industrial power, and ultimately, financial power.

Maintaining multiple fronts simultaneously, France bears a pressure much greater than the original timeline’s World Wars, and they also lack allies to help share the burden, so problems are bound to arise eventually.

Giving the report a quick glance, Gladstone asked with curiosity, "Why has the trade surplus with France increased so much? I remember the increase in trade volume wasn’t that much?"

Trade between England and France was not insubstantial; it’s understandable that imports would decrease since the French were at war and not producing many goods for export.

But for the export trade volume to suddenly increase sixfold was mythical.

It completely defied economic principles. Even with war prompting the French to increase strategic material imports, such a drastic increase was implausible.

No way around it; they can’t produce that quickly! Even if capitalists rush to expand production capacity, it still requires time to ramp up, and it’s only been a little over three months.

"It’s simple; the price of the materials we exported has gone up!"

Finance Minister Disraeli Childs calmly replied.

"France and Austria are scrambling for materials on the international market, resulting in the increase in prices for all materials to some extent.

Especially strategic materials, the prices of which, compared to before the war, have practically doubled. Certain scarce medicines’ prices have even quadrupled.

Of course, the fact that we and other European countries have raised tariffs on France has also contributed to driving up prices."

Capitalists taking advantage of a crisis is inevitable. It’s just that this time they might have been too harsh, but with Austria also inflating prices, the doubling doesn’t seem so unacceptable.

Concerned, Prime Minister Gladstone asked, "What about Austria?"

Finance Minister George Childs shook his head, "In stark contrast to the French, Austria needs few imports and is essentially self-sufficient.

Even when there are shortages, they import from Russia. They experience relatively little impact from the outside world.

Although prices have risen, trade volume between us and them has actually fallen instead of increased.

Of course, the French Navy’s blockade is also one of the reasons hindering our trade with Austria.

Often, even if contracts are signed, they cannot be fulfilled normally."

Prime Minister Gladstone frowned, this outcome was entirely different from what he had expected. He had originally hoped that through this war, France and Austria would deplete each other’s strength and solidify Britannia’s dominance at sea.

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But plans cannot keep up with changes. By exploiting the war, Britannia indeed took a heavy toll on France, but unfortunately, Austria got away.

No matter how much international market prices soar, it has little to do with Russian-Austrian trade. After all, the Tsarist Government is exchanging industrial raw materials with Austria for strategic materials; if prices rise, they will increase together.

The Russians, naturally, don’t need to join this fray.

And so, France became the sole victim, seeing as it’s easy to inflate material prices, but much harder to bring them back down.

After a moment of hesitation, Prime Minister Gladstone slowly said, "Let the Foreign Office start negotiations with the French. As long as the French are willing to offer something substantial in exchange, we’ll find a reason to lower the tariffs, or even abolish them entirely."

This was the greatest assistance Gladstone could offer the French within his authority. Whether prices could be lowered would depend on the French themselves.

After all, capitalists are not easy to deal with; government-imposed price reductions could provoke widespread anger.

Since it’s the French government, not the British Government, buying materials, Gladstone had no need to offend people on their behalf.

Haggling is something the French would have to do themselves with the capitalists. How much they could gain would depend on their bargaining skills.

Foreign Minister George said, "The Foreign Office has no problem. However, just reducing tariffs might not be supportive enough.

If we want both the French and Austrians to deplete their strength, we must find a way to increase the French economic power, or lend them money directly.

While supporting them economically, we must also limit the French military strength, preventing an imbalance of power between the belligerents. Achieving this is very difficult."

Political caution is a true portrayal of the British Government. On one side, the Afghan war consumed much of the government’s efforts, and on the other, there was a need to maintain a balance between France and Austria.

Fearful of causing an incident that could lead to an uncontrollable situation. This could be said to be the most challenging moment for the UK Foreign Office in decades.

Prime Minister Gladstone nodded helplessly, "Let’s try that! We’ll adjust later based on the actual situation.

Before the strength of France and Austria is significantly weakened, we must act cautiously to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control."

...

While the negotiation between Britain and France started, far away in St. Petersburg, Alexander III received his new toy—the airplane.

Watching the splendid flight display, Alexander III felt particularly pleased and asked spiritedly, "When can this batch of planes be deployed on the battlefield?"

Despite the performance, Alexander III had not forgotten the real purpose of introducing airplanes.

The European war had already proven that airplanes are slaughterers against airships. To increase the odds on the frontline, Alexander III was eager to see the planes enter service sooner.

Army Minister Ivanov replied, "Your Majesty, we still lack pilots. Airplanes are different from airships, and the requirements for the pilot are also stricter.

The Army Department has reached an agreement with the Austrians to help us train a group of pilots, and preparations have already begun.

Unless unforeseen circumstances arise, our first air squadron should be able to enter service in three months."

Training a group of pilots in just three months means the pilots won’t be elite under such a tight schedule.

As long as they can operate airplanes and carry out attacks, that should suffice since the enemy only has airships. The rest of the knowledge can be slowly accumulated through experience in real combat; right now, the Russian Army must focus on efficiency, and quick results are what matter.

Upon hearing "three months," the smile on Alexander III’s face suddenly vanished.

"Why so slow? Can’t we speed up the process any further?

We must understand that the frontline situation is urgent; deploying airplanes a day sooner could mean seizing the skies from the British a day earlier!"

Confronted with the Tsar’s demand, Marshal Ivanov felt inwardly collapsed. According to the Austrians, being able to train pilots in three months was already quite an achievement.

If asked to be faster, the quality of this crash course, which was not high to begin with, was likely to be even less guaranteed.

Ivanov replied with a stiff upper lip, "Your Majesty, pilots are a new branch of technology, and we lack experience in training them, so we have to learn from the Austrians.

If we want to speed things up, I personally suggest incorporating airship pilots into the training program; that should save considerable time."

Whether it was a good idea or not, Ivanov did not know. But since the Tsar had asked, he couldn’t be without a suggestion.

As for the outcome, that would be determined in due time. Since it was a new branch, a miscalculation by the Army Department could be excused due to unfamiliarity with the situation.

...…